Market Radar 21. November 2022


How about a Black Friday bet?

On Friday, we saw higher trading volume in the S&P 500 when stocks fell than when stocks rose. That would be a plus point for all those who speculate on falling prices. Nevertheless, the SPY managed a daily gain of 0.45%. Even though the stock market did bravely on Friday after the hangover mood on Thursday, I can imagine a weak Monday and a strong “Turnaround Tuesday” for the start of the new trading week.

On Thursday, the US stock markets closed for Thanksgiving. On “Black Friday” there will be a shortened trading day.

If consumers spend more money than expected after Thanksgiving because of the Black Friday offers, then the stock market could see the first signs that the Christmas business might not be so bad after all. Expectations for this year are quite low. Surprises in the retail sector are therefore more likely to be expected for the bulls, less so for the bears. If you dare, you could now make a “Black Friday retailer” bet. I will present an interesting small cap from the retail sector below:

What do we see under the radar of the major US stock indices?

29 of the 56 sector ETFs I observed receive the daily stamp “buy or top-up” for today. So a little more than half. 17 ETFs receive the daily stamp “bottoming or sideways”. The trend in the stock market is therefore clearly upwards.

Four favorite industries for the bulls?

I took a look at which sector ETFs were able to exceed the last highs, which were mostly reached between 11 and 15 November, from 16 November and at the same time reached a new 20-day high. In fact, only an ETF could do that! Namely the consumer staples (XLP) sector. The sector ETFs for utilities (XLU), healthcare (XLV) and solar stocks (TAN) are currently trading just below the historical highs. These three sector ETFs could be the first to take off to new highs after XLP, provided that the positive development in the overall market continues.

Monster before a monster task?

An interesting stock from the food sector is certainly Monster Beverage (MNST). In addition to the well-known Monster Energy Drinks, the company sells seven other brands. Currently, MNST is forming a flat base in the chart, which has formed since the quarterly report published on November 3. The business figures were slightly above or slightly below expectations. 

The flat base in the chart of the stock forms below the extremely important 100 dollar mark. Should the share succeed in achieving a three-digit price at the end of the day, then the share would at the same time leave a sideways upward range that has existed for 19 months. The way up would then be free in terms of chart technology. If the “$100 monster” is defeated, the energy level rises not only for monster consumers, but also for invested investors.

Shoes always run, don’t they?

Recently, we have seen strong performance in shares of shoe manufacturers such as Foot Locker (FL), Deckers Outdoor (DECK) and Skechers (SKX).
I would basically describe shoes as a consumer good for non-daily needs, because we wear shoes every day, but do not buy them every day.

Foot Locker and Deckers Brands have published decent quarterly figures, Skechers was able to benefit from the investment trend shoes despite miserable quarterly figures. After the miserable quarterly figures, Skechers rose by 25%.
I would definitely prefer Foot Locker and Deckers Brands to Skechers at the moment. After the strong price movements on Friday, a flat basis could develop in both stocks – as already happened with MNST – which could possibly form a set-up for an entry in a few days.


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